Near Term Considerations
posted on
Mar 20, 2012 08:39PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Short term, SP will settle when markets decide that there is sufficient management discount. It will only go so low. If WTG are indeed mining away and pouring ounces as per their plan then current SP will retrospectively be an absolute steal. Management is getting no 'credit' for what they say.
The only thing that matters near term is gold poured at stated amount and cost (or better). The 2011 year end financials will not be an upside surprise. We already know how many ounces were mined (I suspect the admin costs will be huge due to the business combination and associated 'payouts' )….thus the overall financials on a dollar basis will look bad. This could send the SP even lower.
The first opportunity for the only news the market will now care about "POSITIVE MINE NEWS" is 2012 Q1. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that Lamaque will hit 14K ounces as they are still ramping up this quarter. I expect the other working mines will meet/exceed guidance. If however, Lamaque does hit close to 14K in Q1 this will be very positive.…cause they weren't mining alot for the first 6 weeks of 2012 (from Feb 21 NR):
...mine has been able to ramp up production such that over the week ending February 19, 2012 it has achieved an average ore tonnes mined of 1286 tonnes per day, with the last 5 days of the week exceeding 1600 tpd. This a considerable improvement over the average of 757 tpd achieved in 2011...
Therefore 2012 Q2 (August 15) will be the first real yardstick by which WTG performance will be measured.
Short list of things to come over next 5 months:
1) 3rd and 4th quarter (CMM property) financials will be seen WTG year end (on/before 30 March 2012).
2) 2012 Q1 financials on or before May 15.
3) Declaration of commercial production – Lamaque – 2012
4) Updated NI 43-101 for CMM's properties in 2012 (unknown time).
5) NI 43-101 for Nasedkino at end Q2 2012.
6) 2012 Q2 financials on or before August 15.
My overall best case scenario near term is very positive Q1 results shortly followed by some or all of my previously posted list of other considerations that may affect SP (NI 43-101 announcements etc).
The most likely worst case scenario, apart from an 'act of God' would be Lamaque falling short on dilution control and/or cost overrun. Obviously there are plenty of other scenarios...but most juniors also have them.