Where is the Bull Market in Junior Gold Companies?
posted on
Jan 11, 2008 06:08AM
It is interesting to note that most junior gold stocks are down anywhere from 20% to 50% from their highs over a year ago, despite the fact that gold bullion in up over $300 from its lows just a few months ago. Even Victoria Resources is down from 2.30 Canadian in 2003 - 2004 when gold bullion was selling in the $400 area. Obviously there has to be a lot of doubting Thomas-es who are not convinced that this bull market in gold has sustaining qualities. IMO, you simply can't have a top in the market when the speculative activity is at an extreme low point. IMO, before this bull market in bullion is over, speculative activity in Junior gold companies will reach mania levels similar to what we saw in the dot.com's a few years ago. The primary difference with the juniors vs. the dot.com's is the fact that the market capitalization is so small. If you add up the value of all the gold stocks in the world today you will find that it is less than the value of Google - and the market value of all the juniors is a fraction of the total value of all the gold stocks. The simple fact is that demand will overwhelm the supply of junior stocks available at today's prices, which IMO, will eventually lead to advances well beyond levels that even the most optimistic gold bugs for-see. Unfortunately, few investors will benefit from this expected up move because they won't pile in until prices are much higher. In my view, investors presently have a once in a lifetime opportunity to accumulate the better junior gold companies at fire sale prices.