The Turning Point - From Casey
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An interesting comment from Casey Research
The Turning Point
February 13/2009
The Turning Point
Emerging markets will be the catalyst for global economic recovery, not the West. Like China, many emerging markets that have been saving for a rainy day have the cash and political will to spend on development projects that require raw materials. Others, like Chile and Angola, have the raw materials to sell. Even more so, a few countries like Brazil and Saudi Arabia have both. The economy will get jumpstarted with these countries initiating their own trade without the leadership or consumptive traditions of the Western world.
Perhaps even more pointedly, we foresee a highly inflationary environment over the next several years… all of the dollars with which President Obama will be flooding the world will have to find a home somewhere. This will more than likely spark another commodities boom, which is supported by the world’s ever-growing demographics, resource scarcity, and climate-change legislation.
As such, resource-rich emerging markets are going to find themselves being the future home to foreign investment capital again. Institutional capital will trickle, then gush into these markets as the world wakes up one day and finds oil and copper trading at twice their present levels.
Consequently, today’s emerging markets will be the net recipients of the future inflation that is being created by the West.
Emerging markets will be the catalyst for global economic recovery, not the West. Like China, many emerging markets that have been saving for a rainy day have the cash and political will to spend on development projects that require raw materials. Others, like Chile and Angola, have the raw materials to sell. Even more so, a few countries like Brazil and Saudi Arabia have both. The economy will get jumpstarted with these countries initiating their own trade without the leadership or consumptive traditions of the Western world.
Perhaps even more pointedly, we foresee a highly inflationary environment over the next several years… all of the dollars with which President Obama will be flooding the world will have to find a home somewhere. This will more than likely spark another commodities boom, which is supported by the world’s ever-growing demographics, resource scarcity, and climate-change legislation.
As such, resource-rich emerging markets are going to find themselves being the future home to foreign investment capital again. Institutional capital will trickle, then gush into these markets as the world wakes up one day and finds oil and copper trading at twice their present levels.
Consequently, today’s emerging markets will be the net recipients of the future inflation that is being created by the West.
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