<>What are possible scenarios?
1) no interest, no negotiations
2) an offer exists or is being negotiated with a specific expiration date with a right to counter offer and subject to complete non-disclosure ... any leakage of fact reduces or voids the offer but other negotitions discusions can take place to allow them the ability to achieve FMV for the assets being sold.
There is a lot of bad blood that has to be set aside for some interested parties.
Implication .... upon announcement .... the stock will jump to near the offer value ... no speculative run-up.
<>3) negotiations have occurred with various players, an announcement of some form of deal is made with an expiry date allowing the company to pursue counter offers
<>Implication ... price jump... possibly beyond the deal value .... followed by a period of volatility. Final outcome could be greater or lesser depending the quality of the offer.
4) the shareholders will be screwed through some form of scam deal.
Analysis
<> 1) ... too much worldwide interest in spectrum to be worthless
4) I do not beleive greenhill would allow their reputation to be tarnished by the excessive greed of some relatively small time players.
2) Painful to sit through but those who have kept the faith will like the reward with little to no chance of not receiving full value for the shares they continued to hold through this volatile market. (sorry for the dbl negative)
3) The stakes are a lot higher for the service providers than it is for UBS ... the survival of giant companies is literally dependent on access to spectrum ...profits can not be maximized without spectrum ownership ... and those that can not maximize profits are literally doomed to extinction.
It would appear with the complete lack of news etc ... number 2 looks to me like the most likely scenario .... with the venture market having some ridiculously undervalued stocks it is difficult to not want to move some cash into them ... IMO the stupidest move you could make .... This could take awhile but its just a matter of continuing to trust your own judgement ... if you don't some of us still have some cash to pick up cheap shares.
Other possibilities? Flaws in the thought process?
Please comment with meaningful and respectful suggestions.
<> Orgy
