No correlation between uranium and oil pricing
posted on
Feb 03, 2015 12:42PM
During the current sell-off in oil, uranium prices continue to firm with the spot price presently at US$36.75/lb; that's 30% higher than its June 2014 low. Uranium equities seem to be caught in the downdraft of oil stocks despite the fact that there has been no correlation between uranium and oil prices over the last decade (Figure 1). In fact, around the time that oil prices broke down in August 2014, the uranium spot price began to rise - and uranium continues to be one of the only commodities that are rising in the current market.
Utility interest expected to drive more uranium buying in 2015 - the weekly spot price has moved higher since year-end, closing up US$1.25/lb in January to US$36.75, reflecting a greater appetite from various market participants. The long-term price remains steady at US$49/lb or >20% higher than its 2014 low. And utilities are expected to be more active in the coming months as they start to cover their 70 million pound uranium requirement for nuclear fuel needed for 2016 and 2017. The shortfall in nuclear fuel requirements that utilities have in these two years is equal to >45% of today's global mine production - which should lend continuing support for positive price momentum.
Despite the sustained improvement in the uranium price, uranium equities have continued to lag. U3O8 Corp. is a prime example of this value gap with a market capitalization of $8 million against a net present value of US$246 million (based on a US$50/lb long-term uranium price at a 7.5% discount from the preliminary economic assessments on its Argentine and Colombian deposits). With a cash cost estimated to be zero due to by-product credits in the Colombian deposit and US$22/lb for the Argentine deposit, both of which are in the uranium industry's lower quartile of production costs, U3O8 Corp. is favourably leveraged to higher uranium prices.
Figure 1 - Uranium vs. Oil Price Comparison
Source: EIA, UxC, IndexMundi
Feb. 1, 2015 - David Sadowski: A Bullish Future for Uranium
Jan. 30, 2015 - Haywood Securities Inc. - Uranium Weekly
Jan. 27, 2015 - Raymond James Ltd. - Weekly Uranium Tracker