PM Status
posted on
Sep 29, 2016 09:40AM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
My advisor group take on precious metals today:
Bottom Line: In our view, the year-to-date rally in precious metals prices is set to continue. We revisit our preferred names for the sector, and look at company-specific catalysts that we expect will drive share price performance through the fourth quarter.
Key Points
• We remain constructive on gold and silver prices, based on ongoing economic weakness that we expect will drive investment demand for precious metals as "safehaven" assets. We see a pull-back in many of the stocks under our coverage through the U.S. election period and leading up to a possible December Fed rate hike as an opportunity for investors to reload.
• Incorporating higher gold (+5%) and silver (+13%) prices for 2017 into our estimates has positively impacted our EPS (+17%) and CFPS (+8%) forecasts for 2017E. On average, higher metal prices have increased our NAV (5% and BMO) estimates for companies under coverage by +6%.
• Target prices have been increased by 5% on average, weighted towards the medium producers, where targets have risen by ~10%. Target prices among the large gold & silver producers and royalty companies are unchanged.
• We are downgrading two equities with the release of this report, RIC and TMR; both companies have had strong share price performances YTD, which has resulted in diminished implied returns to their respective target prices.
• NEM remains our top pick within the Large Producers, while RGLD is now the preferred royalty/streaming co. Within the Medium/Small Producers, DGC is now the preferred equity, while THO and DNA are top picks within the Silver Producers & Project Developers, respectively.