“It is fruitless to try to predict demand dynamics for gold — I always put my faith in a recovery driven by reduction in supply and I believe we will see the first signs of impending recovery in the second half of this year. The fourth quarter last year was in my opinion the peak quarter for fresh global mine supply. I think supply will drop by 15 to 20% over the next three to four years.” http://www.birchgold.com/news/what-will-happen-price-gold-production-drops