UGLY!
posted on
Sep 03, 2012 11:48AM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
Junior resource stocks more than halved in the last 18 months:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CDNX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71627755734
Even large cap HUI was down over 40% in less than a year until recent rally made up a little of that:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73695711702
This is all during a big run up in the POG.
My take from this is we have had an ugly backdrop at what I hope is the tail end of a five year slide in mining stocks. The little guys are the last to recover. Historically, they give the biggest percentage moves when they turn up.
Nothing I am posting here is new. I only want to emphasize that I do not expect too much until the sector recovers. But when that recovery is in full force, I expect a lot. I think investment money flow into the sector will be necessary to free up favorable financing that isn't severely dilutive. Then the positive feedback loop begins and accelerates.
How long until then? Your guess is as good as mine. But I think it always takes longer than expected. The skill of management to not give away the store too quickly and to time big moves wisely will be key I think.