A possible scenario
posted on
Apr 13, 2012 09:43PM
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Years ago my wife and I each bought a unit of a Limited Partnership which invested in Multi-residential properties in North Dallas, TX that came from the Resolution Trust of the early 1990's. It went well for a couple of years then the SHTF for the complex. The general partner offered to buy the units at a much reduced price for those who wanted to get out. I had researched the area before buying and was mystified as to the decline. So we held our units. Most of the owners bailed. As it turned out only three units were not redeemed: our two and one owned by a person who was declared mentally incompetent with no power of attorney. The general partner kept offering more cash to sell. After the third offer I named my price and they settled. Made a good profit in spite of the hassle. Not sure what happened to the third unit.
As it relates to our situation: If the intent of an insider is to take control it has to be declared on the insider report. Even though I don't have many shares, I can only hope that the group in question is obtaining as many low priced shares as possible in the open mkt and through PP. Then will offer a decent price to the few of us remaining to avoid bad press :) That would be the decent approach. Of course, in business that is never the reality :(
On another topic, lending by financial institutions could be tightened if the OSFI has it's way. They cite the Euroland and the USA as examples that they do not want repeated in Canada. Thus, if it does go in our favour, a JV or buyout by a larger mining company is the most likely route. I can't see conventional debt fom an investment bank as a high probability. Too much risk. Got the info from a Treasurer of a Cdn financial institution who stayed with us recently. As an aside, there is the possibility that HELOC's may be reduced from 80% to 65% of appraised value. Some grandfathering may take place but this will definitely put a damper on the housing mkt going forward.
I am still expecting a dilution to 1 billion shares in the not too distant future. This would only be good for us if the resources were ramped up significantly. I believe we are close to 600 million fully diluted at this time. We still have some formidable hurdles requiring more cash than we have on hand.
Just my humble opinion. FCS I hope that no one bet the farm on TDC or the suicide stats could experience an uptick :( Always use fun money for juniors. As soon as you buy, consider it a bonus if you get a return or even a ROC. Treat it like the casino, the odds are in the favour of the house.
Check out New Gold NGD.TO: the New Afton mine near Kamloops, BC is coming on stream later this year. From speaking with those close to the ground it could be a good play.
Woody