Below find an extract from Alf Field's presentation on November 15th. Alf seems to have both insight and integrity on the gold price, and is highly respected. So far into December he seems extraordinarily prescient -if he is right on for the next few days and weeks, we have another $150-200 on the downside for the gold price, followed by a leap to $4500.

By the way I raised the possibility of Interinvest taking TDC private right when the SH rights were withdrawn a few weeks ago, but was pooh poohed at the time if I remember - "nah, can't happen, J,B, and DW are not going that route, they wouldn't do anything to harm the shareholders, their integrity is without question". Seems a few have noticed potential on the other side of the question as the share price goes down midst heavy buying. Also, if Alf Field is right, Interinvest and J/B may have timed their takeover perfectly - if they continue to act quickly. On the other hand, if gold completes its correction and turns up really fast and they haven't completed their takeover, they may have to deal with very irate shareholders and a much higher share price. Let's hope gold turns around in speedy fashion. If not, I may be one of those barring the gates at the MVEIRB hearings. Ike

Alf Field - "We can now consider the possible magnitude of the current correction from the $1913 top. The correction will be one degree larger than the prior corrections, 12% in PM fixes and 14% in spot gold, an average of 13%. That compares with 8% in Major ONE. Both 8 and 13 are Fibonacci numbers, so it may be that the next correction could be 21%, the next Fibonacci number.

In Major ONE, the corrections tended to double when they moved up a degree in magnitude, so one must consider 26%, double 13%, as a possibility. A 21% correction from the peak of $1913 gives a target of $1511. A 26% correction would target $1416. There is one further possible target and that is $1478, the point at which the explosive extensions commenced. The price of an item will often retrace the full amount of the explosive extension. There was a recent example in silver of such a full retracement of the explosive extension, see the chart below:

This analysis was prepared on 27 September 2011, the day after spot silver reached a low price of $26.59. The start of the extension was at $26.50 on 28 January 2011. A mere 3 months later, at the end of April, silver topped at $49.50, a very obvious explosive advance. Silver then traced out an A-B-C correction where the A and C waves were declines of similar size at $17 each, a typical EW relationship. At that low point of $26.59 on 26 Sept 2011 – the silver price had exactly retraced the full gain achieved in the explosive extension. The conclusion was that there was at least an 80% probability that the silver correction had bottomed at $26.59."

If gold retraces the exact gain achieved during the explosive advance from $1478 to $1913, which occurred in just seven weeks, it will represent a decline of 22.8%. That is nicely within the above anticipated range of 21% to 26% for the current decline in gold. There is a possibility that the spike drop to $1531 on 26 September marked the low point of the correction in gold. The midpoint of the correction from $1576 to $1478 is $1527, close to $1531. If $1531 was the low, it was a decline of 20%. This is slightly below expectations, but it still qualifies as one degree larger than 13%. At the date of writing (7 Nov 2011), gold has recovered to $1767, which is a 61.8% retracement of the loss from $1913 to $1531 (-$382), a typical size for this type of recovery. That leaves open the possibility (40% probability?) that gold will have another dip to test the target areas mentioned. The higher the price goes above $1767, the greater the probability that the low was in at $1531.

Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for this wave should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the way."