Re: Necessary condition to build a mine
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 25, 2011 06:34PM
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"The "market" doesn't believe POG will hold 1600 much less go up from here"
On point #1 you hit the nail squarely on the head. I told a cousin of mine recently, a "typical Wall Steet investor type" that I had chosen not to tell him to buy gold and silver in 2006 when we last spent some time together because I knew he would not get the sense of what was happening. I was mostly all in when speaking to him.
Since then he has come to realize that I have my finger on the pulse of what is happening in the world and asked for investment advice going forward specifically stating that he did not wish to invest in something that had already progressed so far. I know he was referring to precious metals as an overbought market.
Wall Street and the news media have the people in the U.S. so sold on the idea that precious metals are in a bubble that they can't even consider the fundamentals. I attempted to disabuse him of this nonsense but I doubt I was succesful. We may be halfway through the bull market timewise; but so much of the move in the precious metals market happens during the parabolic spike which has yet to occur. The miners do well as the market peaks and for a few years afterward while they make gobs of money.
Point #2 "there will eventually be a double slingshot catch-up-and-accelerate effect when the light bulb goes on above the black box programmers' heads regarding all things gold."
Perfect.
Point #3 "Remember, we are not going to get funding to build a mine without significant stock price appreciation."
I think we would all like to see it happen this way, but if the stock price chooses to lag, rather than diluting the current shareholders in costly financing I would be more comfortable with a slower growth curve. Sinclair spoke of $25M to get TRX (Tanzanian Royalty Exploration) into operation as a producer mining the easy to get at stuff and the Buckreef project. Not a "Cadillac" operation but more like a "Ford" operation just to get started. Tyhee could probably do a similar thing at slightly more cost (I believe TRX already had some production equipment), get on the map as a producer, and the go for the full production model (the Cadillac) when the stock price reflected their producer status.
Hopefully the stock price will rise and this option never has to be considered. I only put it out there because it is a valid option. It is excessive debt that has the world in the shape that it is now in.
Manageable, do-able debt is fine; but I hate being a slave to the lender.
P.