Just reading Nassem Taleb's book " The Black Swan". He reckons all financial, so called, experts who try and make predictions are either charlatans or deluded into thinkng they have some kind of insight into the future that no-one else has. Financial markets are complex systems and inherently unpredictable. People who make good calls do so more by luck than judgement. So, I'm not suprised JP has got a few calls wrong, particularly in his timing.

I think you have to just go with the likely macro-trend (which for me is inflation and de-basement of paper currencies) and try to position yourself to take advantage of and/or not be wiped out by the rogue events that come along from time to time.