Skeleg's view on valuation in next 3 months
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 18, 2010 12:45PM
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What Tyhee has is worth a billion dollars rght now, to me. But not to others.
I am valuing the gold yet to be drilled off under the mine site, the gold yet to be drilled off in all the constellations of Tyhee's holdings. I see the YGP as a gold camp with many many millions of ounces to be eventually produced from Tyhee's holdings. I see Tyhee shares as a very long term succes for me and my children, for decades to come. Tyhee owns these assets 100% right now, with no debt. But they have to prove what they have, and start taking some gold out of the ground.
But own share price forecast has come apart in recent months, but I don't think I said that Tyhee would be worth a billion dollars by this Sept. More likely, I said that I personally consider tyhee to be worth a billion dollars, once it achieves enough of the important milestones that will result in it being valued as a producer. If somene wanted to take tyhee out today, I would personally support accepting $500 million for Tyhee, today, before PFS and DAR. But that's way more than the market values Tyhee.
Like so many others, my confidence in Tyhee was shaken by the poor share price performance. As enthusiastic as I am for Tyhee's long term prospects, I began to think that the downturn in the US economy was going to make it very tough for Tyhee to raise cash. This could cause the share price to stay lower than I had thought a few months ago, as all it takes is a few large sellers to be forced to liquidate assets to cover other bets, much like we investors have to do when we have margin calls.
On the flip side, Tyhee's sensitivity to price moves with such low volume are also an advantage when something important changes. Today, with the price of gold making a major technical signal to the up side, my confidence in the reaction to the positive PFS being restored.
I don't want to get my own hopes up too much. I currently think it will be worth several hundred million by the end of December, this year, when both PFS and DAR are accomplished. To close in on my billion dollar valuation for Tyhee, I think we need a permit and financing in hand, to remove any doubut or risk premium.
A new though I have is that if the junior sector continues to suffer, and gold price is very high, I wonder if the DAR and other aspects of Tyhee's EA give Tyhee an option to go into production in the following manner:
Suppose that money continues to be very tight. Rather than build all the mill and all the other expensive stuff needed for full production, could Tyhee go into production in some incremental way? Crush and process the ore in the mill for gravity reclamation, but then stockpile the material for chemical re-processing later on?
To my uninfomed mind, getting some gold production going in such an incremental manner would be less than ideal, but could be an option if going it alone and not much money.
Or is that too desperate to consider?
In any case, gold production at Tyhee's YGP is goign to be economical. When the DAR is achieved, it must be valued accordingly. When we are actually budling a mine, and production is on the way, this valuation will eventually be based on a multiple of the anticipated earnings. So a billion dollar valuation is coming in muy opinion. But not in 3 months.
But if your intent was to nail me down for being unrealisitic, I must reply that my own valuation of Tyhee is pie in the sky. Realistically, Tyhee will probably continue to underperform it's true potential, until the entire Junior sector catches on fire. Then who knows, the sky is the limit.
My own strategy is to accumulate shares as best I can, and then hang on and own a piece of a succesful gold producer, and watch Tyhee grow into a much larger entitty with projects in more than one region.
SKELEG