We've all watched for the last year as tyhee had a dismal market cap of 22 million or so. But now we have seen a little excitement and popped up to 24 cetns, and a market cap of 50 million. While this is nice, and half-way to that $100 million DW spoke of in early 2008, in that Tyhee won't be really noticed by the big $ people and funds until market cap is north of $100 million.

When Baires and others talk about 'ten baggers', what baseline should we use for Tyhee? I think that the artificiallity of last winter, with share price down in the tens and teens is not a suitable baseline. It was weird, and the result of hemorraging by some large investors and funds that had to dump anything they had of value. So my personal belief is that a baseline of 50 cents per share would represent what Tyhee was worth before the market crash. That is, from the point at which Tyhee had a market cap of $100 million.

Since then there have been some events. 30 million or so more shares issued, throws math out a bit, but just use 200 million shares as the baseline at 50 cents. We've seen real progress on the permitting. We've seen Tyhee management weather the storm and be frugal yet continue good geology with surface mapping of the Clan Lake discoveries. Progress on the environmental assessment / permit process and the DAR / engineering studies will bear a bountiful crop of fruit in 2010.

So I hinge my "10 bagger" expectation on that 50 cents, and quite honestly see a share price passign through $5.00 in the near term (12 to 18 months). Factors such as the next down-turn in the global economy, the continued erosion of the US and other fiat currencies, but most of all, the long term trend for gold to be re-ballanced to reflect a new reality for gold. Central bankers not selling, but needing to buy as life insurance in the context of ill paper currencies. Exploration and production not keeping pace, public distrust of the bail outs and a generalized insecurity. All of this, as it portends higher gold prices, is the water in which our Tyhee prize fish swims. That it's in Canada, with reduced geopolitical risk, is very re-assuring. That we have a CEO and shareholders rights plan to protect us from being bought out on the cheap, is essential. After all, would you walk away from $5.00 for $1.25?

Once we see $5.00, and are on the verge of production, then Tyhee will be valued at a mmodest discount to future earnings. All the math will have to be reset by then, as inflation may have become recognized then. Oil may be $120 or more a barrel in 2011 dollars, even if that would be $80 in 2007 dollars! POG may be $2500, for all we know.

But Tyhee shares are gold, and should be valued in gold. If I'm right, that the constellation of discoveries in Tyhee's holdings will result in a long life and expanding production that sees 10 million ounces actually mined, then your tyhee shares, even if we end up with 300 million issued, equate to 30 shares buys you one ounce of gold in the ground. You can cut that in half if to pay for mining. Cut it in half again for the years it takes to mine it, and you are still left with 120 shares of Tyhee buys an ounce of gold. Cash that out in any paper currency you like, and in the context of dissolving value of paper currencies, Tyhee shares really are a way to preserve wealth as well as increase it.

So, with all of this in mind, what are your 12 to 18 month expectations for Tyhee shares? When buying pickes up to 5 million shares a day, as funds and new investors start to participate in the quality junior sector, there will be a shortage of sellers and a stampeed of buyers. We'll have days when Tyhee goes up 10 or 20 cents in a day.

Feb 2010, we'll see Tyhee prominent in share price performance in the Dundee newsletter. We already see Tyhee a strong buy in TD Waterhouse (research). And even the nasty old colonel I work for has shifted some of his investments into gold. Add computer trading and speculation to the mix, as a form of positive re-inforcement of the Tyhee up trend, and we'll have enough thrust to achieve take-off speed. Once airborn, we'll continue to climb all the way to our multi-dollar cruise altitude.

And I bet, for many of you who have cost averaged down or got in recently, you'll be in the black before we hit 50cents.

So let's visualize this, 10 bagger from 50cents is to $5.00. Beyond that is gravy, so tasty gravy!

SKELEG (pegleg to my friends at Stockhouse)