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Message: Tyhee Development Potential and the POG

Tyhee Development Potential and the POG

posted on Nov 29, 2009 02:07PM

Now that Tyhee's share price has started moving again and the path to success continues to clear, I decided to more accurately re-work my calculations and projections. I made a big mistake in my previous post few weeks ago, I underestimated the cost of debt. I used an amortization calculator to make sure I was in the ball park this time.

I fully understand there are still many variables and that my projections could be very high or even very low but take them for what they are, projections only. They do give you a feel for the effect of POG on share price. IMHO, the next two years will be very exciting for everyone invested in the gold/silver sector. For others, it may be very ugly. I hope not.

Oh, I welcome comments on my calculations. Thanks, Mark

Tyhee Development Potential

Dec. 2009

Assumptions:

Production rate per the P.A. of 165,000 oz/per year.

Total shares outstanding at time of production of 300 Million

<Current fully dilutes shares 185 Million>

Total debt at start of production $150 Million at 8% APR, 8 year amortization:

Monthly payment of $2,120,000 = $25,440,000 per year.

Price / Earnings (PE) Ratio of 30.

Operating cost of $500/ounce(Current est. per PA is about $390 from 2008)

GOLD PRICE at:

$1,000

Yearly Gross: 165,000 x $1,000 = $165,000,000 ($165M)

Yearly Net: $165M – (165K x $500) – ($25.44M) = $57M

Earnings per share: $57M / 300M shares = $ 0.19

Price Per Share(PPS): 30 (PE) = PPS/$0.19

Therefore PPS = $5.70

$1,500

Earnings per share: $140M / 300M shares = $0.47

PPS = $14.10

$2,000

Earnings per share: $222M / 300M shares = $0.74

PPS = $22.20

$3,000

Earnings per share: $387M / 300M shares = $1.29

PPS = $38.70

$4,000

Earnings per share: $552M / 300M shares = $1.84

PPS = $55.21

$5,000

Earnings per share: $717M / 300M shares = $2.39

PPS = $71.71

$10,000

Earnings per share: $1,542M / 300M shares = $5.14

PPS = $154.21

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