Deflation_I don't think so.
posted on
Oct 05, 2009 08:19AM
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Here's an interview from Mr von Greyerz managing partner with Matterhorn Asset Management from Switzerland. Analyze what he is saying and compare it to what is taking place.
Deflationists are seeing gross mispricing of assets being adjusted, but miss the bigger picture.
Virtually without exception, hyperinflation arises as a result of a collapse of the currency. It does not stem from demand pull or costs running out of control.
The prerequisites for hyperinflation are a deflationary or non-inflationary recession/depression leading to major government deficits. The government issues debt paper to finance the deficits. Initially investors continue to buy the government bonds especially as in the case of the US with the dollar being a reserve currency. This is the first stage of the money printing cycle.
Then foreign investors stop buying the bonds and the government has to buy their own paper. This is the second stage of the money printing cycle which is called quantitative easing (a nonsensical fancy word for money printing).
As the money printing accelerates due to growing deficits, foreigners will no longer buy the worthless paper and the currency begins to fall. This leads to a vicious circle of a falling currency, more money printing, inflation and finally hyperinflation. I realise that this is simplified version of the course of events leading to hyperinflation but I believe in explaining things so that most people can understand.
(emphasis mine)
The dollar may begin to start falling sooner and faster than we imagine possible. It is being universally rejected as a world currency and has now been adopted as the carry trade currency of choice putting additional and continual further downward pressure on it.
We are approaching liftoff in gold. Tyhee will follow.
When awareness comes that each ounce of real gold and real silver already above ground has 5, 10, or a hundred people with paper claims to it, things will get trully insane.
P.