Re: It would be nice if $930 held
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 17, 2009 03:18AM
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P. Thanks for the article, my thought when reading it was, maybe in the past concepts of money were much more simple , if a note goes into circulation, that cant be recalled, but if you were listening to Hochberg on FSN last weekend, his “idea” seemed to be along the lines of trying to figure out which assets or part of the money/credit supply are going to implode and which will be left standing.?
From a purely markets perspective I see lower stock prices ahead, a lower Gold/Dow ratio , more write downs in bank and bond assets , higher interest rates, which on a 6mth horizon is more deflation in the financial markets. Every 6 mths I will review but my guess is that stock market decline will run out to 2011. One of the many elephants in the room is Mark to Market and it is clear that there are trillions of assets on the books of companies around the world at the moment that are not worth anywhere near their current book value , if I get a feel that assets are finding a bottom, then absolutely start looking for inflation to be the primary mover. I have been warming to guys like Tim Wood recently even though sometimes I want to throw a shoe at the laptop but following the market and not being too stubborn about it is crucial at the moment
And Yes I see inflation ahead but the only time horizon I am interested in is the one that effects my investment pot and thats the intermediate term. Listening to JP recently I’m wondering if he is going to be on the wrong side of the market again over the next 6 mths? I’m not getting the impression he is as defensive as someone like Hoye. JP risks being “long inflation” through to the point where even Prechter says the deflation is done?