First Quarter 2009 filing now on Tyhee Website VERY GOOD SITUATION read on
posted on
May 02, 2009 08:27AM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
Posted on tyhee's website 30 April.
under Quarterlies. 2009. Highlights:
http://www.tyhee.com/financial/docum...
Administrative expenses down from $1,192,000 to 442,500. GOOD.
Addition to exploratio properties down from $2,055,00 to $414,000. GOOD< but I expect we'll see it go up a bit in the next Quarter....
Cash at end of period $2,356,000. Very good. Before the e$6 million coming in Q2.
Interesting situation in share capital (note 10) is that the average price of the 16,313,000 stock options is $0.38. Only 780,000 expire in 2009. So my take on this is that the share price will be substantially undervalued until it is above 40 cents. If you can pick it up while it is low, it's a no-brianer (like we have a special private placement at 15cents!).
Investor relations down from $75,000 to $36,000. Mixed. Is this down because the last period was so bad in the markets that there was no point? Also, that where we are in the process (last fall in particular) is a period of slow grind with no need to promote awarenss? If so, will we see IR increase in Feb 2010 when we have PF in place, DAR submitted (long since) and into the final phases of the EA process with MVEIRB? I expect to see this line item increase to about $100,000 in Q1 2010.
The $24,000 advance on NSR paid to DW's company at Line 16 may account for his ability to renew his accumulation of Tyhee shares...
Subsequent to year end, with the recent Private Placement, the company is going to mobilize drills. Page 1 of 14 page 20 of 34 in the full doc..
Interesting comment that in the Goodwin Lake discussion on page 24 of 34, that aresenophrite is rare to absent. I think this is important, as the chemistry of the ore can have two basic outcomes, one is that the tailings will be relatively easy to keep in the right PH and not be toxic, and the other is much more toxic, as we saw with Giant Mines toxic legacy. I think that the company has so far established that the processing of their ore will not be this toxic type that has to be "baked" which reslts in a real toxic mess. I think that the DAR will go into a lot of detail on the chemistry and how they will NOT make a toxic legacy...
Interestingn comment in line with my Vikign specuation: P26 of 34: "The company continues to focus on the potential of its existing claims, the acquisition of claims immediately adjacent to the Yellowknife Gold Project, and other properties in the Yellowknife Greenstone Belt. Additional opportunities for exploration and developement are considered on a case by case basis." Therefore Viking, if melting down, is under consideration in some manner....
TOR and WP from MVEIRB expected by end of May 2009....P26 of 34. "These documents will guide the development of a Developer's Assessment Report (DAR). The DAR represents a principal document upon which the regulators assess if and under what conditions a mine may be operated in the NWT.".
TO me, this means that the submission of the DAR in response to the TOR and WP, which may be submitted by Sept or so, is a key milesone in the development of this mine. THen we have the DAR review process, with a key step of Information Requests from MVEIR back to Tyhee, and Tyhee's IR response. Then, if necessary, the public hearings. After that, the final stages of the DAR Review lead up to ministerial approval of the MVEIRB report. All of this may be done by March 2010. Then the next stage is MVLRB License and Permit. That stage is most of 2010, and paralel to that will be design of the mine, sourcing of equipoment, financing. Financing of building a mine... So you can see that 2010 is the key year, and I believe the year our share price will move into the multiple dollars. Listing on TSX in 2010. I am certain that this crazy share price sub 20cents can't go on for much longer, and by Feb 2010 we will be rising rapidly towards and through a dollar.
This document really reflects the the reality of Tyhee actually becoming a gold producer in the next 3 years. Once it is a producer, and has earnings, it will be a $3 to $5 stock or better.
As for numbers of shares, while there are over 16 million outstanding options, these are at 38 cents, so that woudl be more than $5 million in cash if exercised. Fully diluted, even with the May private placement, we'll be at about 220 million or so, with $13 million cash at that point (assuming full dillution). That's strong. The only concern is that in 2010, when we need to raise $25 to $50 million in equitiy in order to borrow the funds to build the mine, we need to see share price much closer to a dollar, or we'll see considerable dillution. At 50 cents, that $25 million would add another 50+ million shares. So I expect that it'll be about 300 million shares when we build the mine. So one would need to have 3 million shares if one wants to have 1% of the mine.
So this Quarterly is well worth reading a few times over, then tracking how well we are doing at achieving these benchmarks.
I am feeling very good about my investment now, and will greatly increase it in the coming months. This is a very well managed company, with a winning formula and having come a long way through development towards being a producing gold mine in a safe jurisdiction at just the right time in the economic cycle.
Got Tyhee?
SKELEG