a good day for those positive about Tyhee
posted on
Apr 15, 2009 07:03PM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
My thoughts on this PR and the AGM materials:
Well, this morning's news was a nice surprise. What I like about it is the fact that DW is expressing how much larger the Main Zone at Clan Lake may be. He is normally very conservative, so such a statement means he is confident in his data and understanding of the geological picture there. Eventually, the Clan Lake part of the YGP constellation may add a few million ounces to the gold in the ground we Tyhee shareholders own. It's my contention that there is gold going right down to at least 3 x the depth drilled off so far at Ormsby and Clan and the other deposits, and that continued exploration will add even other as yet un-named zones. I see a series of zones stitching all the along the yellowknife gold camp from blue fish to Nick Lake. But even if it is only the zones we know of today, which are all open to about the same depth as Discovery, then we have 6 to 10 million ounces here. No overburden to remove. Good chemistry. Great local infrastructure. (all those other well discussed positives)
Also, the progress towards the DAR for this fall gives me great anticipation that the one-two punch Tyhee has, in (1) profress on the EA/permit process on the one hand and (2) continued exploration with steady expansion of the resource and the dawning awareness of the full dimension of the YGP potential on the other hand. Tyhee will come to be valued as a MAJOR DISCOVERY on the order of 10 million ounces or more. It's a billion dollar asset, no matter how poor the share price is today, it'll be a multiple dollar stock long before the first ounces are produced.
But the more serious question, that nobody seems to have explored, is this:
Could there be a reason that the shareholders rights plan needs to be in place?
The other recent press release says that it is NOT in response to any known buyout or takeover candidate. However, I think it is in response to the board being fearful of the risks of being such a juicy and undervalued asset with such a depressed share price. Maybe there is soemthing to the worry that JP may sell some of his stake in Tyhee. So I looked a bit more carefully at the AGM materials at the Tyhee website.. I asked myself this: would DW or any other board members benefit much from a takeout? I think not, because they don't have enough shares. It would not be worthwhile to sell out for 50 cents/share. They have a reasonable number of warrants/options but they are at a relatively high price. It seems to me that DW will only make money, real money, by taking this mine into production and getting his net smelter royalty, exercising his warrants and selling some shares at $5.00 and higher. And based on my discussions with him in person, I am convinced that Tyhee is his retirement plan for 10 or 15 years from now. He wants to be at the helm for years to come, and has great patience and determination. He's not easily excited, and approaches the whole thing with a calm confidence in his own core competency, his understanding of the Yellowknife geology, his ability to find gold, and perhaps his growing confidnce that he has found enough to attract the attention Tyhee will need going forward, when the time comes. The time comes after more progress on teh permit process, not this spring or summer, but maybe by the fall or winter.
One thing I am concnered about, however, is that he had been buying a few tens of thousands of shares each month until Dec, and none in 2009. Iether he is saving his bullets for later in the year, such as nearer to when the DAR is submitted, or he is not recieving as much income from Tyhee as he did before. He is entitled to a salary as well as the consultancy contract with Tyhee, but maybe he has scaled back payments as part of this cash conservation mode.
I would like to know more about why he is not buying shares while they are cheap, as it is the only thing I am not happy about right now. There may be more to look at in the hard copy of AGM materials or other filings.
As for the PR issues I have complained about, this last press release is better worded, as it does not understate (nor overstate) the importance of the increased Main Zone potential.
All in all I saw today as a good day for my investment in Tyhee.
And perhaps a good day for our positive Tyhee discussion forum.
Do any of you have any thoughts on the AGM materials?
SKELEG