importance of German Soverign Bond Failure and UK monetary policy
posted on
Jan 11, 2009 07:12AM
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-...
It's very surprising that there is almost no discussion in the mainstream media about the lack of apetite for German 10 Year bonds:
"The fate of the first eurozone bond auction of 2009 signals trouble ahead as governments around the world hope to issue an estimated $3,000bn in debt this year, three times more than in 2008.
The 10-year bonds failed to attract enough bids to reach the €6bn the German government wanted. Bids of €5.24bn, a cover of only 87 per cent, amounted to the second worst auction on record in terms of demand. ..."
This, and comments on weakness in the UK Pound, where economists attribut this distrust of the Pound due to the debt levels and the "living beyond our means" which are resulting in more weakness in the British currency.
But the real story is that governments are having increasing trouble raising money for these crazy stiumul packages. Everybody seems to be holding their breat until after inauguration day, to see if Barac Obama can magically turn the tides. The tide has just started to come in, however, and the Fed is going to have to monetize the new debt.
Seems we have maybe one more week of softness in gold prices, and in my view, the turning point is going to be in the first or second week after inauguration day, when there will be no more things to wait for, no new hopes coming along, only the reality of the problem which has to be faced. This will, in my opinion, be accompanied by another panic of delevaging, smart money leaving US bonds for hard assets like gold, and Dow finding a new low below 7,000.
Personally, I am maxing out to accumulate as much Tyhee as I can. Our SP may not go RAPDILY to a dollar, but when it moves from the teens to the twenties, it will be the greatest "opportunity lost" for averaging down and accumulating. Sure, a few months from now, the twenties may seem to have been extremely cheap as well, but at 12.5 cents for something really worth 60 cents or more TODAY, what a steal. It's like having a gas station selling gas for 30 cents per litre (or say 50 cents a gollon), while others are just now raising their prices to 60 cents per litre (or say a dollar per gallon).
I'm filling up my tank.
Hope you sellers discount my view for just a week, and sell me more shares. For any of you who have not averaged down, or have held off increasing your positions, how much time do you think we have before SP goes up a notch?
SKELEG