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Message: More Grist for the 2009 Gold Forecasting Mill...$1,200/Oz says Bryan Wien

More Grist for the 2009 Gold Forecasting Mill...$1,200/Oz says Bryan Wien

posted on Jan 05, 2009 07:58AM

More Grist for the 2009 Gold Forecasting Mill... $1,200/Oz, says Bryan Wien.

(I guess only UBS and Nadler are contrarians now?)

Cheers,
Baires
Pequot Capital’s Wien Sees Rallies in Stocks, Oil, Gold in 2009

By Elizabeth Stanton

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Byron Wien, the investment strategist who predicted a recession would drive U.S. stocks lower last year, says the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rebound 33 percent in 2009 as the economy recovers.

Wien, the 75-year-old chief market strategist at Pequot Capital Management Inc., forecast the S&P 500 will rise to 1,200 in his 24th annual “10 Surprises” list. He also predicted gold will rise to $1,200 an ounce and oil will rebound to $80 a barrel.

“In anticipation of a second-half recovery in the U.S. economy, the market improves from a base of investor despondency and hedge fund and mutual fund withdrawals,” Wien wrote. “The mantra changes from ‘fortunes have been lost’ to ‘fortunes can still be made.’”

A year ago, Wien’s predictions included a 10 percent decline for the S&P 500 and onset of the first U.S. recession since 2001. The main benchmark for American equities sank 38 percent, the most since 1937, as financial shares collapsed and energy and metal producers tumbled. The National Bureau of Economic Research Dec. 1 said the economy entered recession in December 2007.

Wien, a former senior market strategist at Morgan Stanley who joined Pequot in December 2005, says his predictions have at least a 50 percent chance of coming true, while the consensus view is one-third odds. In previous years more than half of the items have come to pass, he says.

Westport, Connecticut-based Pequot, the hedge-fund firm run by Arthur Samberg, managed about $4.3 billion as of Nov. 30, according to its Web site.

At its lowest closing level of 2008 on Nov. 20, the S&P 500 was down 49 percent for the year and 52 percent from its Oct. 9, 2007, record of 1,565.15. It rebounded as much as 24 percent on speculation government spending will curtail the recession, aided by a drop in interest rates as the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark rate to a range of zero percent to 0.25 percent.

The S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent to 927.45 as of 12:07 p.m. in New York as concern that a slump in corporate profits will stretch into 2009 overshadowed speculation the government will revive the economy with tax cuts.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 5, 2009 12:08 EST




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