rbrauns

“FWIW, I’m probably going to sell half of my Thyee and if Minefinders recovers by April, sell ALL of it and buy Suncor, Talisman or some other energy co in April with exposure to the oil sands”

You are correct to be thinking about the various scenarios, I don’t think you need Madam X though ;-) , I’m 100% convinced (for now) that during Mar/ April investors if exposed to energy , silver and base metals need to ease up at least and take some profits, as for gold and the gold stocks I think it is a matter of wait and see what happens in Q1 , if something different is going to happen I would like to see the gold producers come out with market beating profits during Q1 .

I think we will all agree that the currencies and bond market will be under severe stress in 09 so if gold is going to do its job this will be its first testing ground. And to be fair for non USD based investors gold it already out performing most asset classes

And just thinking about Tyhee , lets say Tyhee is 40c on the first of April, what do you do?Now imagine gold is rising during the next crises but Tyhee drops to 30c with the stock market but suddenly the major gold stocks turn around and pull Tyhee up to to 50c+ , would holding be better , or would you have the emotional energy required to anticipate a drop go to cash and buy at higher price? You would have a lot of memories from 08 which I think would make you very hesitant to jump back in and you mightend up waiting for the pull back that never happens.

As such the above strategy wouldn’t be bad but you would need to write it down detailing exactly how many shares you will buy back at a particular price. By all accounts we should have a multi year bull market in gold and generally the biggest gains come towards the end so as any good trader will tell you , you don’t get any prizes for being a bottom picker.