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Message: Is the Stock Market about to Crash?

Re: Is the Stock Market about to Crash?

posted on Nov 20, 2008 04:46PM

Silverharp earlier stated that as long as the 2002 lows held we'd be OK.

That's technically quite important and as we stand now, those lows have been breeched. However, you have to consider a couple of things here.

First off, ask yourself if the 500 companies that make up the composite are better off now or in 2002. I know this is basic, but if you start breaking down the fundementals of what's happening within that composite, each time an order is executed, the individual or firm that makes that decision to buy or sell is essentially asking themselves that question.

I can tell you that in 2002 I felt good about a lot of companies in the S&P500. I felt pretty good about the over-all outlook for the economy. I didn't feel too good about tech stocks. But I did feel that financials were a good bet. I was extremely bullish on materials. I was positive on all sectors but techs. I thought housing would do well. Most areas of the economy looked strong to me.

So what's your outlook now compared to 2002? Do you feel better about buying stocks now than you did then? Did you feel as nervous then as now? I doubt it...

So when it comes right down to it... why would the markets not go lower? The economy is now toast. Bush and his treasonous henchmen are bitter about the legacy heaved upon them and are now enacting a scorched earth policy. They've essentially left the building and are more concerned about packing boxes and covering up any evidence of their wrongdoings. This is to say that there is absolutely no leadership in place that can instill any kind of confidence or anything else.

The only thing that can save the economy now is massive spending that we can't even fathom at this point and that will come at earliest next winter.

So till then, we have a couple of potential outcomes.

1. A technical bounce off today or tomorrows low with a short covering rally that takes us up to the 900 to 1000 mark (optimistic) followed by a decline back down.

2. The market keeps plowing downward until it hits the 400 to 500 mark.. perhaps even less.





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