All I know for sure is that we have hit peak credit, if you put yourself in the shoes of the average joe 6pack in the anglo saxon economies he has debt piled upon debt with a lot of resets coming down the road, in the short term PO wont matter as any energy induced inflation will be overshadowed by falling house prises , increased debt repayments and doors closing on access to new credit , Auto loans & credit cards.

I guess just keep an eye out where the money starts going , JP says he looks at money growth and calls that inflation however one cant ignore where the money is going, if the fed creates 1 trillion dollars and locks it in a vault is that inflation? It will only be inflationary if the money is funnelled into the real economy. I’d keep an eye on wage inflation, if wages are not going up in nominal terms then high inflation is deferred.