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Message: Markets and Election Outcome (Part 1)

I was looking at some Dow charts going back to their inception which had timelines of important events tagged on them. As such you could see what presidents were around at each phase in the market.

It seemed to me that the market fared better under Democrats, which really surprised me since it seemed to me that wall street tended to lean more towards the republicans than democrats (that is just my feeling but I don't have any data on this).

Anyways, I did a little more research on the subject and came to some interesting conclusions. Not only have markets done better under Dems, all the big crashes have come under Republicans. However, I also found an article which was written on Forbes website which came to the same conclusions so I'm going to past that below. Keep in mind that this was written just before the last election!

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Forbes Magazine

The Presidential Portfolio
Ira Carnahan, 02.17.04

Should U.S. investors load up on stocks or bonds? That depends on who wins in November.

If there's one thing many investors think they know, it's that a reelected President Bush would be better for stocks than a Democrat. Bush, after all, has pushed for less regulation of business and, with the Republican-led Congress, has chopped taxes on capital gains, dividends and high salaries. The Democrats, by contrast, are vowing to clamp down on corporate greed and repeal tax cuts for the "rich."

So here's a surprise: In recent decades stock market investors have done much better when Democrats occupy the White House. Since 1927, stock returns adjusted for inflation have averaged five percentage points a year higher under Democratic presidents than under Republicans, according to a new study by UCLA finance professors Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov. For the smallest stocks the difference is even more striking--during Democratic administrations they've returned an average of 18 points a year more.

Gee, Republicans are good for nothing? Not quite. Bonds do better under Republicans.

Here are some political investing pointers. But before you race to overhaul your portfolio based on the latest polls, keep in mind that these findings are based on a fairly small number of presidential elections.

Republican wins give the stock market a short-term boost. Stocks tend to do better right after a Republican is elected President than after a Democratic victory. This makes sense, because most investors expect--rightly or wrongly--that Republicans will be better for the market and so bid up stocks in anticipation. Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel finds that since 1888 the market has risen an average of 0.7% the day after a Republican win and dropped an average of 0.5% after a Democratic win.

Longer term, stocks do better under Democrats. While stocks get a short-term boost from Republicans, over the course of an entire presidency they tend to do better under Democrats. That's especially true for small caps. Part of the reason is that small caps respond more sharply than large caps to economic ups and downs, and Republicans have presided over many more downs. Since 1929, 30% of the months under Republicans have been spent in recession, compared with just 10% under Democrats.



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