Just listened to JP and an interview with one of the Prechter gang. I had bought the "Conquer the Crash" book by Prechter in 2004 so I went back to look at it again.

When looking at what to do with gold/silver, Prechter looked at 1928-1937. He looked at silver primarily because gold at that time had a fixed price and silver traded on the free market . He does say to buy silver and gold in his book because of their long term viability and the fact that it may not be available(sound familiar?). I picked some numbers for silver off of a graph in the book, but here is what he showed:

1928: $.60/oz

1929: $.45/oz

1930: $.27/oz

1931: $.30/oz

1932: $.25/oz

1933: $.27/oz

1934: $.43/oz

1935: $.80/oz

His says that the bottom in all assets classes(Gold/silver included) will happen when the deflationary cycle runs it course. In the 30's that was thru 1932(about 3 full years after start). He says that this will be great buying opportunity and maybe the best ever. Times are much different now with the Feds being much more active and monetary policy being much more aggressive, so 3 years will be too long in my opinion. I am back to the thesis that we will see oil turn first and that will be a sign that gold/silver will turn. Oil led the previous rally and is the commodity more investors and general public is familiar with. Donald Coxe's latest spot shares this view.

We are all right in our investment in this sector ; we are just early to the party. Somtimes it feels like a slow motion train wreck; at least we are not in coach.

Silvernut