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Message: Cambridge Show Update

Cambridge Show Update

posted on Oct 06, 2008 04:21AM

Hi Guys,

As Baires said, the Cambridge Show was a little depressing. I say this because the amount of companies represented was down quite a bit from last year as was the traffic. In one sense, that was a nice opportunity as it was a good opportunity to chat with the representatives of each company.

A sign of the times for juniors though. Typically at these shows you'll see a lot of promotional gifts displayed from pens to stuffed animals. Not really anything out. Staff was cut back as well. Clearly, companies are going into survival mode and I suggest that anyone that was there was there because they'd made the commitment long in advance. Unless things dramatically pick up for the juniors in the next year, I suggest that this show will be toast.

Further to this, I was chatting with a few of the speakers that I know. These are the guys that write newsletters and so on. They said the traffice was better than expected. I was surprised at this so I guess their expectations were really low. In fact, one guy, whom is someone you'd all know of, said he thought it would be completely empty and since it wasn't, he was happy. And from that point, don't get me wrong... there were poeple, just not the bustling crowd I'm used to. At his seminar for instance, every seat was taken.

So that's the bad... however here's the good. Whenever I went to talk to Dave there was one or two people there. I didn't feel like asking all the questions on the list. I had intended to video interview Dave but he said the board wouldn't approve that so that idea was quashed so I just asked him the most important questions from my list.

First off, how were they planning to weather a prolonged downturn in the junior sector. This was that they had about 8 million in the bank according to the last financial statement and while some of that was spent (He couldn't say how much) they hadn't spent that much. Their burn rate was about 1 million per year if they where not drilling heavily and that they were slowing operations down to a conserve mode. As such, they had enough cash in the bank to weather the storm for several years if need be.

That's really all I needed to hear. Dave also suggested there were other properties and companies in the year that they could look at as possible takeover targets or aquisitions if the price was right.

He said he wouldn't consider a JV right now and lastly he definitely seemed excited about Clan Lakes prospects.

So my feeling coming away from Tyhee was that we'll need some patience to wait out this market but that our investment is entirely safe. Any further dips in price at this point are nothing less than buying opportunities.

Sorry I couldn't get more questions answered, however, as I looked down the list, most of the questions seemed rather inconsequential at this point. For instance, the question of insiders.. well fact is they have been buying and the other fact is that managment are not endless pits of money themselves. I'm sure they'd buy more if they could.

Illegal bashing and is not a concern of anyone. In fact, most people just consider it idle gossip and of little importance. It's a problem for stockhouse to deal with. Agoracom is getting more and more popular for having dealt with it. In fact, they have become more legitimate and now have an association with Globe investor.

As for tackling illegal shorting, that would take a lot of money and most companies I spoke with were not willing to wade into a large battle over shorting. The market will eventually clear out the shorts... I believe that's happening now. After all, there is much to lose and less to gain from shorting juniors at this time.

So that's it. I did want to ask him about the potential for a reverse split. However, from talking to other people I also go the impression that no one was worried about the size of floats now since most juniors will have to increase their floats dramatically over the next several months as they need to raise capital. Also, from personal experience, I have yet to see where this has actually helped a stocks price. Show me one company where the reverse split worked out. In the end they all end up back to the same price as they started, but with a lot less shares. Ultimately, market cap is what's important, not how you arrive at that.



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