Jj, I think your estimate is OK, but based on a few assumptions I dont share.

Financing has to be paid off in 7 years, not 30, as the RoI in the PA is based on a 7-year life. Life extension and resource gains, which I agree are a certainty with at least 200,000 oz added per year, and production to increase as the mine matures....but in the final analysis, I would paint a 2010/2011 picture as:

POG $1200. Cost/oz $450. Financing (7years) $30 million/year.

200 million shares. PE of 30 or better results in:

$750 x 165,000 oz = 93.75 million earnings / 200 million shares

= 0.46 EPS x 30PE = $14.06 share price.

I believe we could imagine $1200 POG 2 or 3 years from now safely. Price of oil may come down, but price of equipment and labour will rise in an inflation spiral, so increase the cost/oz.

The PE of 30 is very conservative, as 3 years from now tyhee should have proven up another 600,000 oz or so, and even accelerated the exploration program. The mine could be operating two or three years from now. Suppose at that time there has been a big shift in investor sentiment to gold juniors? If so, PE may be more like 45, recognzing that mine life and productino rates will be increased.

So a 3 or 4 year price target, ceteres paribus, would be between $14 and $21.

It's OK to dream, even if some at outhouse will criticise this. What if Gold price goes to $1500? And resources are added at a rate of 250,000 oz / year? Production would be increased to 8,000 tonnes per day of milling. That is about a 2.5 fold increase over the PA.

Remember, people have said about Dr. Webb that his vision is to grow the company to the point that it ACQUIRES others, not vice-viersa. this could be one of those very few success stories that 10 years later has us in the $50 range.

That's the kind of longshot that penny stocks are based on, and most do not deliver. Those who hang in there for the next 2 or 3 years will see...

What of the current market? I don't get it! The roller coaster in POG is going to make me throw up! Like the agony of waiting for a much anticipated arrival, the last minutes are the hardest.

A long term commitment would be easier if and when we see some positive movement in the share price. Back in the hold for another week. Hope to see land soon. (and to that poster also on outhouse, I like your quip about my pirate stories!).

SKELEG the one-eyed peg-legged gold-hungry pirate.