ukdavec wrote "I am a trainee technician - more a fundamentals guy.
Does your technical analysis give any target prices? timescales?"


BAIRES2 wrote "www.trendsman.com (TA analysis for subscriber only unless you offer to buy him dinner in Buenos Aires) a couple of months ago sent me his Tyhee price target of around $1.50 once TDC.V clears an important resistance at 75cents."

Hi ukdavec. I reviewed several scenarios and interestingly arrived at the same projection as BAIRES offered - about $1.50. I used two completely different methods to arrive at this conclusion & the fact they validate each others targets increases the odds $1.45 to $1.52 will be achieved. And I also agree 77 cents is the next major hurdle to overcome and as soon sas that obstacle is cleared I expect the SP to appreciate very quickly as very little overhead resistance exists until $1.50.

At any rate I first calculated the natural Price Objective based on a massive multi-year Reverse Head & Shoulders pattern and this works out to a *minimum* of $1.45. But there's even better news because that's only the first PO based on this measure meaning higher prices are in store farther ahead. You see huge H&S formations are very reliable yardsticks that extrapolate where the share price is headed far into the future - all things being equal of course. As such the next natural price target derived from this pattern is $2.10 which not coincidentally is within a few pennies of the all-time high of $2.20 and change.

The second calculation was based on using a Fibonacci-based projection. I won't bore anyone with the gory details except to say the next PO is $1.52 - within pennies of BAIRES's figure and my first calculation of $1.45 (remember $1.45 is a *minimum* objective so it could peak somewhat higher.)

Timewise, potential exists to hit $1.45-$1.52 within 8-12 months from today, meaning February to June 2009, with a possible spike higher to $2.10 to $2.20 on good news. I didn't just pick this timeline out of a hat but rather observed how the SP behaved in the past 8 years following a major trendline breakout, and extrapolated from that repetetive behavioural pattern. I also noted several less complex short cycles at work that coincide with and corroborate this proposed timeline.