Re: More on PFS 13f-hr
posted on
Apr 26, 2008 06:12AM
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Puplava is not a buy and hold guy. He is a trend guy.
His basic premise is that investing trends last for 10 to 20 years and the best way to profit is to find the current trend as it emerges and stick with it until it is almost over.
He believes as do I that the current trend is in things (Oil, Gold, Silver, Commodities, etc) and that that trend is far from over.
You need to believe in and follow Austrian economics to understand why this trend will be the dominant trend in an inflationary environment and why we will have an inflationary environment. This is not mainstream Keynesian economics thinking but it does have a better track record over the long term.
He also says that there will be many dips along the way but the trend is your friend and you can use the dips as a buying opportunity.
If you apply this trend philosophy to the gold market of the 70's or the tech bubble than you get a different investment result. In both cases the trend follower exits during the blow off top.