Sinclair talking about Tyhee tonight?
posted on
Feb 20, 2008 03:58PM
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Well, no...but this is interesting. Somewhat applicable to Tyhee IMHO.
Dear CIGA Hardrock GH,
The hedge funds are long the Barricks of the world and short ALL the juniors. The hedge funds have over-priced the big guys and under-priced the juniors.
Here is the question that needs to be answered:
With gold headed to $1650 what do you think your junior with 1,000,000 ounces of 43-101 compliant reserves and a deposit strike length of at least 4 kilometers would be worth? Here's a back-of-the-envelope estimate:
1,000,000 times $1650 minus a $300 total production cost per ounce.
In ground value: $1,650,000,000 (not including recoveries)
Cost of extraction: $ 300,000,000
Amortization of plant and equipment over say a 10 year mine life: $200,000,000
Value:
Value of the asset $1,150,000,000.
Now let's say the deposit goes to 5,000,000 ounces contained. In this case five times $1,150,000,000 is the value - all things being equal.
Does the enterprise plan to produce or will they sell the asset when it matures, say two to four years past initial production?
If they plan to produce for their own account, then the value is a combination of discounted present value times cash flow.
If they plan to sell the property, it is asset value. If the last sale of such an asset was at "x" euros times ounces contained, then the starting negotiation would be a premium above "x" euros times ounces contained plus a value for gold contained within other resource categories.
The hedge funds can play all the games they want but they will fail on valuations as gold goes to and through $1650. My personal money is wagered on my words.
So those that are demoralized should sell and stop the pain.
I am significantly committed and intend to continue my commitment with every cent I have, no margin.
Regards,
Jim