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Message: stock price expectations and long term visioning

stock price expectations and long term visioning

posted on Feb 06, 2008 07:23AM

What are your expectstions?

I say that rather than "hopes", as at this stage in the emergence of TDC from exploration to ultimately being a producer, this is not about throwing dice and hoping for a good roll. Rather, investors are somewhat more committed at this stage. Those investors who buy in from private placements, perhaps after having been given presentations and up-to-date information to assure them that their money will be well spent (expanding the resours, paying for consultants producing essential reports and documents, buying a mill, installing power lines or other infrastructure, financing environment clean-up oblications/deposits etc), must have long term expectations in mind.

What are yours?

Some of you have written about having sold a stock when it starts to rise up, only to miss the real payout that comes from holding much longer. I am in that category. I am comfortable taking risk, with large returns in mind, but then tend to sell at the first sign of real strenght. This may have happened to some of you when TDC was about .70.

So as we all anticipate the spring, and hope to see the stock find a new level North of $1.00, perhaps we should set our own targets in mind as an antidote to excited selling on strength.

Why are we in this? For me, to be part of this success story long term. OK, so how do I lock my fingers from the sell button? Maybe get my wife to change my passwords and not tell me for 2 years?

OR..Perhpas by visioning a future scenario, and then holding on until that point.


Consider this vision:

2008: TDC expands resource to 2,000,000 contained / measured ounces, 4,000,000 when counting indicated and inferred. Longer term exploration targets are well defined, and this part of the business plan lays the way for expanding the life of the future mine.

What mine? That's still a few years away. But in 2008 we saw progress in the regulatory process, we saw infrastructure start to shape up, equpment identified, some purchased. Progress on agreements with the local utility provider is made. Big players start to engage TDC, as they are awash with cash. TDC makes some deals to embrace cash and expertise but remains on their own path to being a producer in their own right.

The stock price solidifies well North of $1.50. In the fall of 2008, TDC identies how much cash they will need for building the mine. Issue of equity is made easier due to Gold steady above $1,000. Those who invested at 0.75 are seeing what they expected to see, and are open to increasing their stake in the next round of private placements. They bring in others, and TDC is not overly distracted by rasing funds, and can concentrate on the business plan. TDC on TSX.

2008 also sees more community engagment in Yellowkinfe, rasing awareness of the coming mine. More and more local connections are made, so that when the time comes, the local business community has had time to ramp up their own operations, readiness, to be there for TDC.

Feb 2009. I notice a truck with 4 enormous tires (Yokohama) and wonder if it's headed up the ice road to the mine site for TDC. In fact, it is! It's part of the first major winter move of infrastructure for 2009. Later I see some huge, strange yellow machines that are also on their way to the TDC mine site (Ormsby). And also in 2009, we see updates and news releases on the permit process.

The share price jumps into the $3.00 to $5.00 range. VIPs make an appearance at the site, where construction crews are installing the infrastructure and working on containment and other essential environmental control systems. Problems are encountered, and addressed with care and attention.

2010, I am distracted by the winter olympics and miss a few press releases, and not living in YK any more. But after being at and watching Canadians take home the gold (short track, ice hockey etc), I catch up on my TDC and see that the mine is opening in the summer, and pre-production is actually going on.

The stock is North of $7.00. But, there are 460,000,000 shares outstanding. I have at this time sold 20% of my holdings, and regret even having sold even that. But they enabled me to buy my retirement property in the Kootenays.

In the summer of 2010, with the mine operating, the latest news is the continuous expansion of the resource, with Big Sky and other resources coming together in great detail. There is 20 years of mining, with a second mill coming on line in 2011. Diamonds are a bit flat now, but the POG is at $1500. The recession in the US is nearing an end, but interest rates are at 12$ and inflation is high.

When I look back on it, my investment in TDC exceeded my expectations and even my silent hopes. and I am glad I held off from panic selling on strenght back in the spring of 2008.

How about you? Did you hold on for the long run?

SKELEG

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