Re: Tuscany's future growth - Believe
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 04, 2011 01:16PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Hi Believe;
Welcome to the new board. It is good to see you posting here.
As for the speculation on Stockhouse, I don't see Tuscany going to $10.00 anytime in the next couple of years. If you look at the Saxon Energy Services sale, Saxon had only about 87 million shares, if I recall correctly when the company was sold in 2008. They also had 65 drilling rigs at the time of the sale. Today Tuscany has what, about 226 million shares so far and 17 drilling rigs, with 2 more in the beginning stages of being built. For Tuscany to get to 65 rigs they will have to do what Saxon did, which is they will have have to buy out one or two other drilling companies. Saxon did that when it was starting out. I bought a drilling company in Venezuela, and another one in Ecuador. The problem with buying out existing companies is that you end up with used oil rigs which may not fit with the Tuscany game plan of newly built rigs, built on a common model with interchangeable parts. The other problem is how to pay for a take over without issuing more shares. When Tuscany starts out leasing all of its rigs on long term contracts, and when it has a number of quarters of cashflow under it's belt, then it may have enough cash in the bank to finance it's own take overs as well as using borrowed cash to do so.
The 226 million shares isn't necessarily a problem if Tuscany grows relatively quickly in terms of it's cash flow, and paying debt down at a reasonable rate as it continues to grow. It's the debt that is the killer. If Tuscany grows it's cashflow over the next couple of quarters and uses it to pay off most of it's debt and it continues to build new rigs and pay cash for them (as long term contracts have already been signed for the rigs before they are built), then the number of shares doesn't matter. Down the road when Tuscany is much larger it could even do a reverse takeover if it needed to in order to reduce the number of shares. But I think they will be more successful with low debt or no debt. Tuscany management has also indicated that they are looking at takeovers of existing private drilling companies to grow. The other side of the business is Warrior Rig, which Tuscany owns 40% of. It could become very profitable with Tuscany handling rentals and sales for Warrior in South America. This could be another large source of cash flow for Tuscany as Warrior Rig grows as Warrior Rig is still a relatively young company.
Believe, I agree with you that Tuscany is being built to be sold. Anyway, these are my thoughts so far.
Cheers; Scott