Highlights of last Corp Pres. Macquarie Base Metals Outlook Conference Dec 2008
posted on
Jan 06, 2009 05:29AM
We own, or have an interest in 12 mines in Canada, the US, Chile and Peru; a large metallurgical complex; wind power facility, specialty metals - germanium and indium, and exploring for copper, zinc, gold in the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe and Africa.
This is a snapshot of Teck today. We have 17 operations, 6 development projects anddozens of partnerships focused on opportunities in copper, nickel and precious metals.
The pie chart of our revenues over the last twelve months to the end of September is starting to show the growing impact of our coal business. We expect that over the next 12 months, coal will represent more than 50% of our revenues.
In spite of these conditions, leading analysts still believe that although base metal demand will be weak in 2009, there could still be some growth in global terms. This does emphasize the need for keeping a global perspective. We find that when we come to Eastern North America, there is a much more bearish attitude here than we see in other parts of the world.
Steel demand is very uncertain at this point and very concerning as the current indications are that consumption could decline. Again, taking some guidance from leading commodity analysts, the market may indeed be oversold at this point relative to where it could be in 2009.
At least through March of ‘09 we have relatively little exposure to the weak metal prices.
Our operating cash flows from coal are protected by contracts at very attractive prices and we have hedged almost 2/3’s of our expected copper production at over $2.40 per pound. Consequently, pricing on nearly 3/4’s of our total revenue should be very predictable, though it is clearly dependent on the contracts being honoured.
We are seeing signs that coal customers are deferring shipments, so coal volumes are a bit of a question. Those issues will be addressed in the course of setting the next coal year prices.
Our coal business alone is expected to generate somewhere in the range of CAD$1 billion in pre-tax operating cash flow in Q1 ’09. The chart shows our cash flow at over a range of sales volumes, as we do realize that there is some uncertainty on what our volume of sales will be given recent communications from customers.
We will reduce sustaining capital expenditures to $250 million dollars for the year, a reduction of about $350 million.
We’ve already received $165 million of cash back from Revenue Canada, with over $800 million more expected by Q2 of next year. This money will be applied directly to debt reduction.
Sale of non-core assets provides another good source of raising cash to reduce our debt.
We have talked about the possibility of selling our gold assets for some time now, but one key factor in this in the past was that we really didn’t have any immediate use for the cash. Obviously that situation has now changed.
We kicked off this process by announcing the sale of our interest in the Lobo/Marte resource. Although only $110 million for our share, I suspect many of you had not been very aware of this asset, or assigned much value to it. We have a number of other attractive gold assets, and we are currently in discussions with several interested parties.