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Message: Question for the Board

I have no doubt we will survive. Here is a copy of a post I put on SH about the markets in general and the doom and gloom that have been beaten into peoples heads.

The meeting with Golder went very well. They gave TTM a timeline and an acceptable budget to carry on. CC is also awaiting reports from 2 other companies preparing their reports and then TTM will decide who to go with. As I have stated many times things are progressing still extremely well.

Now DOOM AND GLOOM:
It almost appears that even those people who I felt truly understand what is going on with the markets here have been sucked in by the doom and gloom camp. This AM on CNN they said that Germany is now in a recession, wow thanks for that news, I never would of guessed that lol. The stock valuations we are now at have pretty much priced in a global recession by now anyway.

You have to deal with more recent history making comparisons to the "great depression" are no longer valid as there have been adjustments made in the last 50 years to ensure we are not going to all be lining up at the soup kitchen.

What we have is the libor rate falling (the rate banks lend to each other) which is very good news don't here much about that right now as the media is concentrating on scareing the crap out of us instead to sell those newspapers. Now the financial system appears to have at least a pulse. Now we focus on the global recession which I hate to hear that term as by using that term indicates that , ALL COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD ARE IN A RECESSION, which is just not true. Bad news out of China awhile back stated that they forcast that they may only grow to a rate of 8% for 2009 instead of 11% last year. No matter what statistics your use for a recession to take place clearly that is not the case. In fact China had growing concerns over inflation and now they have subsided.

Here is a simple explanation of the business/economic cycle, look closely at the graph.


A recession is really caused by an over abundance of goods produced in the peak period. Layoffs are now happening, companies in order to survive must become more efficient and this is happening now. Earnings will be weak but will improve when these efficiencies are met.

The big question is where are we now in this graph? I believe somewhere between the growth line and the trough. Therefore imho there is still some downside to come (economy wise). But the stock market is a leading indicator and will move upward before the recovery ( it always has). Just like the markets started to tank before they officially announce a recession. Now look at the growth trend line after every economic cycle the trend is up.

Is it different this time???? NOPE.

In the end it all comes back to supply and demand, always has and always will. No doubt this theory has been played with to a very large extent with manipulation but that is the stock market not the economic cycle they are different from each other.
Many will micro analyze everything for the most part to get an edge on when is the next peak or trough is going to occur. One thing is for certain nobody really knows.

WHY I REMAIN OPTOMISTIC, in the past when the US went into a recession it pulled the world down with it much like it has done so today. What is different is there emerges some new economic leaders including China and India. With these new leaders and when the Americans work their way out of this I think we will be on a roll like never seen before in our time. DOOM AND GLOOM is old news and almost in the past. I for one believe there will be a return to the "good times" and also CC one way or another will build us a mine.

BBOB
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