Re: trading very close to cash value ...
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 12, 2008 10:01AM
(Edit this Message from the "Fast Facts" Section)
Very good and thought provoking post.
I have not had a good chance yet to ask CC what if anything has changed in the direction that TTM is heading now that the SP is where it is and the credit markets as well.
Oh what I would give to be a "fly on the wall" in some of these meetings. lol I know that we got offered around $1.50 about a year ago not an official offer but indeed there was such a verbal offer. What has changed since then is all the positive work we have done since that date which cost us dollars but added tremendous value as well, and yes the collapse of the credit markets. Last spring in Germany CC got asked a question of what he would accept as an offer for the Chu and he said, "I would not accept 5 bucks". Once again before the markets collapse. We have made huge strides since last spring as well.
Personally do I think CC would willingly accept a "low ball" offer of a buck or two, my answer is a very resounding no! Keep in mind he has been buying all the way down which is an indication that at these levels he must be very confident that this is indeed temporary.
CC made it very clear to me in the last few weeks and he quotes Eric Sprott as telling him, "don't focus on things you have no control over such as the markets instead focus on things you do have control over such as the development of the Chu". That is what he told me again in an email last week.
Now imho, I honestly believe that these credit markets do have a bearing in our decision making process, if we like it or not. Only time will tell how significant it will be. If we need financing no doubt it will affect our share structure as it really has to, if and only if we needed money today. That is not the case. There is flow-through money available but I doubt very much CC would pull the trigger at these low prices as for now he is not forced to do so, thank goodness!
From my conversations with CC these markets are no doubt harder on the nerves than crippling to taking the Chu to production. Ask him yourself its business as usual. The fundamentals of our project have not changed therefore our strategy has not. The plan is to bring in a fourth rig that in itself does not seem like a strategy of a company that is hunkering down into sleep mode.
Like I have said many times if you looked at the Chu project and moly fundamentals without knowing what our SP was at you could not feel anything but extremely confident!
Selling now would be giving the Chu away imho since we are close to our cash price. That would value the chu deposit to close to nothing? Same reason why we are still here we believe that the depressed SP (as painful as it is) is only temporary.
Markets will turn around and when they do we will be that much further ahead. What does not seem to be talked about much is "cost inflation" with some companies going into sleep mode that will no doubt drive down all of our costs as labour and equipment will become more readily available.
Even if you bought this at our all time high SP the only questions that remain are; how long before I see a profit and in what means, buyout, jv. etc.
BBOB