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Message: The 8P's of investing in mining stocks

The 8P's of investing in mining stocks

posted on Sep 09, 2008 12:50PM

Found this article over on the v.caa board.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Investment Due Dilligence - What and Why of Choosing a Junior

In this grim market, the bright side of things is there are deals on quality juniors everywhere.

Last time we used
Mr. Jay Taylor's approach to due dilligence, this time let's review another successful (some would say more widely-followed) analyst/writer - Mr. Doug Casey.

He has a simple system called the 8P's of Picking an Investment in Mining Firms, let's review them briefly as it's a very reasonable and great structure for new investors to do their homework on the companies they're putting hardearned dollars in. In next week's post I'll describe companies using this method as an example.

1. People
No matter what anyone else tells you - the people in the company can make the biggest difference in the world. Past experience, credentials, success history, not to mention their network can allow better private placements, less dilution, focused exploration efforts and delays, and also well publicized company. (see:
US Gold's McEwan who was ex-CEO of Gold Corp up to 2004 and TNR's Schellenberg who was involved in big buyout with DeBeers Diamond with Winspear Diamonds at over $300 million and is well known around mining circles). Tip - call up your favorite analyst at your brokerage firm and ask for the CEO's reputation and successes... I'm positive Canaccord Capital would recognize both of those names above!
Personally I would rate the TTM people a AAA+. No doubt these people have the connections otherwise there is no way we could of gotten to where we are this fast.

2. Property
Obviously the land has to be decent - was there historic resource calculations? Was there past drilling results (mineralization doesn't exactly walk away once it's there! That fast anyways)... was there past producing mines? (yesterday year's technology versus today's - chances are there might be more resources deeper that they missed!)

As charming and polished as the execs might be, no analyst will visit a piece of property and come back raving about glow-in-the-dark rocks. You need some solid and convincing drill core samples and/or assay results, resource estimates, and even feasibility reports in some advanced company's cases.

This point also ties into Politics but we'll get there.
We indeed have very solid results right up to the pre-feasibility which is awaiting on Crichy's return. Our property is world class and rock solid.

3. Politics
How is the local treating the companies down there? Chances are your laborers are around the area... do you have a contracting company backing you up that has
extensive mining experience and well respected? Is laborer and skilled technicians/geologists readily available?

How is the attitude to mining over there, does the government ban certain type of mining due to environmental issues? All key issues to think about during any stage of mining whether it's exploration or production! Higher cost / taxes = lower profit. Simple!
Very strong again. From the city council of vanderhoof right up to the premiers office. And soon to be annouced the "company with extensive mining experience". No environmental issues infact the local area and economy is ravaged by the Pine beetle outbreak.

4. Promotion
As much as you would like to believe it's a rational market, is there a consistent marketing and focused investor relations message from the company? Of course it's a chicken-and-egg theory, but technically good results should already attract attention, coupled with ongoing communication and marketing efforts - the increased visiblity should reflect nicely in share prices. (at least in bull markets anyways - not sure about this year!!!)
Nope imo this is an area that we can improve upon, but the good news is it is also the easiest to implement. It is my understanding that after the pre-feasibility is out steps will be taken to improve this. One thing for those interested you are very unlikely to find another company who are so helpful if you are not afraid to pick up the phone.

5. Push
Also known as newsflow. Keep in mind most of your retail investors and analysts are not drill technicians with frontline information. Most commonly they only get updated and excited a company when new results come out! With that said news release timing is also very important... many companies don't control their newsflow when the market starts waking up... they rely on their JV partners to release news and this momentum can be all lost without the right news!!
Same as the above imho we have not done a good enough job of this to date, or at least since winter. But again it is my understanding that the company knows they can improve upon this.

6. Price
What's the share price now and what's the market cap?

Depending on number of properties, certain milestones have to be reached by 200 million shares fully diluted, for example most companies would be producing at some small level by then usually. That also means the company may have been around for awhile - and sometimes even if the other P's are good, investors may just get tired of the same company logo and such!

Dilution is another thing, in a difficult market dilution occurs faster because share prices are lower - companies have to issue more just for the same amount of money!! Thus the original shares are now worth less because there's more people to share the pie with you when and if properties strike gold/copper!
We are in very good shape. Low float and enough cash in the bank to carry on for another 8-10 months according to our burn rate. The used equipment will ensure our dilution will be limited.

7 & 8 Paper and Phinancing
Share structure is another story - what's the warrants at? Options? Any hostile parties holding your options or warrants that will send the price crashing down when they sell? Here once agani it's nice to have
Another is trading volume, a thinly traded stock may mean many things including large longterm institutional holding - which is great! But it may also signal liquidity issues for new retail investors.

What's the ask-bid like usually? Take a look! It's important to have this data on Stockwatch or Real Time Platform... after all how do you know you can sell at $0.20 if there's only 1,000 bid at $0.20 (meaning it's $200) and you invested $500? The other $300 in this case will go down the list or be added to offer side as a block!
TTM is a perfect example of "longterm convicted shareholders in the company looking for the big payoff, not the small jumps of 5-10% here and there! Now doubt we have proved that again and again its pretty much the longs left as in these markets companies getting crushed we are holding up extremely well.
There are very exciting times ahead for this company which are going to happen faster than you think. Patience will be greatly rewarded.
BBOB


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