The SPX monthly MACD has moved to a sell signal. In the last 20 years there have been only 4 such signals – on two occasions the outcome was a steep correction, the other two times a full-on bear market. I believe a correction (10-20%) is more likely than a true bear market.

The Greece thing may be the catalyst, but the technical signs have been there for several weeks. The transports look terrible and the upward momentum of the SPX and DOW has virtually ground to a halt.

If Greeks vote yes in the Sunday referendum, the markets will have a relief rally. But I don't think it will last. I suspect we get volatile swings up and down, but I think there will be more down days – possibly for much of the summer. I'm playing this by buying VIX calls and day trading VXX and XIV.

Gold stocks may actually do OK during this time – gold stocks did poorly in the 2008 bear market, but well during the 2001-2003 bear market. It's not a sure thing, but the stocks are priced like they were in 2001, and the seasonals will soon be favourable. July 27 is the average date of the seasonal low in gold stocks.

Venture has been trading in a tight range this year. If gold stocks do move higher in the summer, Venture should follow. But if gold stocks buck the seasonal trend (which happened 4 times in the last 14 years), Venture could easily break below last December's low, and head toward its long term technical target of 400 - which would be an amazing time to buy, but few people will have the courage to do so.

Either way, it looks like it will be an interesting summer.