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Message: Venture 400?

Venture is repeating old patterns – bottoming in mid-December, and breaking down in March. The bounce from the Dec low was much weaker than I had hoped or expected (the Santa trade was a bust this year). Because of this, I think Venture has a very real chance of falling to 400 this summer. Only a small amount of technical support (the Dec lows) stands in the way. Gold and gold stocks are in a similarly precarious position. A breakdown from these levels would make another leg down very likely.

If this comes to pass, we might finally reach the long term bargain basement buy point everyone has been waiting for. By that time, much of the deadwood will be gone. Some day there will be renewed interest in the juniors, which could start a whole new bull cycle, possibly lasting for years. A period of seasonal strength in PMs starts in late July, so that will be the time to take a good look at the juniors.

Meantime, I'm getting a little more cautious on the US market. It's still technically OK, but the internals are softening and the charts are starting to look tired. The bull market is a little long in the tooth and may need a breather soon. If current trends continue, I'm looking to go mostly to cash by May and wait for opportunities in the summer.


kim
Mar 17, 2015 01:21PM

Mar 20, 2015 08:29AM
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