Don't fear the correction
posted on
Jun 15, 2014 11:09AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
US markets are overdue for a significant correction, and there is a good possibility it could happen sometime between now and October, the most vulnerable time for the markets. But what about resource stocks? Would a correction in US markets tank them? Normally I would say yes, but not this time. There are a lot of indications that resource stocks are headed higher. Here's a summary:
TSX – very strong the last 12 months, a trend that looks like it wants to continue.
CRB index – successful test of last year's June low, nice run from Jan – March with sideways consolidation. Possible breakout at any time.
Venture - Hard to believe, but it's up YTD as well as the last 12 months. The double bottom June & Dec is still holding. The 200, 50, & 20 DMA have converged – large moves often happen after this occurrence. Volume modestly improved over last year. Bullish falling wedge pattern since March peak – just starting to break out. Improved internals – best since March.
PMs – monthly MACD for HUI has made a positive crossover buy signal for the first time since mid 2009. Powerful rally last week with small caps outperforming big caps and both outperforming the metal – very bullish. Short term overbought, but intermediate term looks good.
Uranium – stocks still outperforming the metal & URA still refusing to break down even though the metal has. All the bad news seems to be priced in & any gains in the spot price will likely be reflected quickly in the stocks.
PGMs – setback last week, probably due to resolution of a mining strike in South Africa, but overall still positive.
Energy – still positive.
The Synergy board – gone quiet - a contrary indicator, lol?
It can be argued that much of this is due to the chaos in Iraq, which might be true, but I think Iraq is merely the catalyst, the underlying conditions have been in place for some time.
Bottom line – After 3 years of dreadful performance, I think that resource stocks are the place to be from now until year-end and maybe longer.