I've been trading so badly of late, I thought it best to take a break, even though I suspected it could be a reversal week. I've learned from experience that when I'm in a trading slump, I should just take a holiday to clear my mind.

Even though I mostly just sold puts on the gold stocks, I still managed to lose money – and I really hate it when that happens, lol! I know bottom-fishing is not the best thing to do, but I enjoy the challenge & I love catching that first move, which is usually quite powerful. I've generally done OK at this, but this time I was far too early. The purpose of mistakes is to learn by them, so I will be changing my bottom-fishing style. I'm going to wait until I think a reversal is imminent, then day trade the leveraged ETFs. That way, I can still catch the big first move, then buy the individual stocks on the initial pullback. We'll see how that works during the next cycle.

As for the markets, the big question is – was that it? Are the lows in?

US Markets: Closely tracking Presidential election year seasonality, which typically bottoms in late May, runs up into mid-June, chops around to late July, then makes a powerful move into Sept. However, the volume patterns are unimpressive – it looks slightly more like an oversold bounce than a true intermediate low. I think the odds favor the bulls for now, but the evidence is not yet convincing enough to ring the bell.

Gold Stocks: Just the opposite of the situation in US markets – impressive volume patterns the last 2 weeks that support the idea that gold stocks have finally bottomed. However, the seasonality picture is poor – gold stocks typically tend to be weak between late May and late July. But since seasonality has not worked for gold stocks so far this year, I think the volume patterns are more significant. Also, the downtrend from late Feb has been broken (at least for the large caps) and weekly candles look positive. Although a near-term pullback would not be surprising, I like the outlook for the gold stocks.

Junior Miners: Hard to add much to the fear and loathing. Still no liquidity to speak of – a quasi capitulation and a quasi bounce, but not much volume on the bounce. I've always believed these stocks are for trading rather than holding, but without liquidity, even trading them is difficult. Venture has clearly broken the neckline of its head & shoulders, so I believe the pattern must fail. Unless the Mayan calender was referring to the Venture, I just don't see it below 400. There are times when common sense should override technical patterns. I've seen Elliot Wavers discuss DOW below 1,000 as if it were certain because EW theory says so. If the gold stocks have truly bottomed, Venture should find some support, but I still want to avoid the juniors until there's some return of liquidity.