This really is starting to look like that old film classic Groundhog Day or is it more like Texas Chainsaw Massacre? Sauved by the soft sounds of reassuring Central bankers, volatility has plunged to complacent lows once more just as price risk has soared. This pattern has coincided with market peaks and unexpected losses thereafter each Spring for the past several years as shown in this chart of the VIX (Volatility index) below. Will this time break trend, and not follow-up with the next crushing blow to unsuspecting investors? Will this time be different? Who feels lucky?

Source: Cory Venable, CMT, Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc.