Don Coxe 3/2/12 Notes - Inflation is now the official world wide policy per Don
posted on
Mar 03, 2012 09:58AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Don's call had a strange new type of urgency to it. I bolded some things that stuck out to me. My frog eyes are seeing a bit better even if I feel like they are looking at things from "underwater" given what happened last week!
Don Coxe 3/2/12 Conference Call Notes:
· Central Banks are now all uniting to drive down the value of their currencies. They are taking the position that they cannot afford to have our currencies be a store of value. (e.g. Brazil is taking desperate measures to hold down their currencies; Japan’s is the last big country to capitulate – it has now broken to drive down its own currency)
· The official policy of the world is now becoming one of inflation contrary to what it has been in the past.
· So people are moving into hard assets like silver/gold
· We now have the potential for explosion of liquidity that even Don could not have imagined. This is a near perfect backdrop for gold.
· Given the tiny amount of gold in the world once it sinks in to those who have something to protect, they will want to have gold. There is no other recourse to what’s happening with all the debasement of currencies going on. There is no way that countries want their currencies to rise.
· Canada is arguing against continued development of the oil sands on the basis that it will continue to strengthen CDN dollar to point where Canada cannot compete. Currency did have some impact on the decision to move the Caterpillar plant to Indiana. Carney has a policy where he will not let the CDN get too high but that is different than saying he will destroy its value.
· Money is now an instrument of exchange but is no longer a store of value. Therefore you cannot put it under your mattress to protect your wealth. This will continue as long as the aging populations of the industrial worlds continue to struggle.
· This is a new buying opportunity for gold. Don doesn’t know how far it will pull back. He has never ever seen such an environment for precious metals. In fact its hard to construct a theoretical environment that is better for them. But you can’t put all your money into gold.
· For last 6 mos of 2010 best group was miners, capital equipment…..commodity stocks dominated it. But as of this morning’s paper (IBD) what you have at the bottom is energy, coal, miners. Way up at top is machinery, construction and mining. This is saying that there is a capital investment going on and that is the way to make money. E.g., via purchase of “pick axes” versus “panning for gold.” Don does not agree with the market’s assessment of this approach. He believes that it won’t be long before the mining groups move back up to be in the top sectors.
· We will end up having something that looks more and more like the 70’s where there was double digit inflation. So far it has not looked like this. Eurozone has inflation only in the 2 – 3%. You cannot print money on this scale without eventually inflation coming in. But what is new now versus the 70’s is the financial system whose books are suspect and highly levered up. There is such tremendous liquidy in the market. TED spread has dropped from 60 to 40 which is still somewhat elevated. Pressure on overnight money which leads to sudden crashes has been resolved. Interest rates on European bonds has been lowered. Italy bond rates dropped from 7% to 4.9%. But things are still far from perfect. . The sheer level of liquidity is so gigantic there will be bad effects.
· One of the other things we learned from the 70’s is that good companies with good cash flow were able to function in the inflation ridden 70’s.
· This is a chance for you to add to your position in your gold mining stocks which will do well when gold once again rises which will come fairly shortly as people realize there’s nowhere else to go.
· What’s been happening in oil prices? News out of Middle East is worrisome. In Syria what’s happening is the 1200 year war between the Sunni’s and Shia’s (sp?) continues. So this will not get resolved by getting a new constitution. This could be one protection for one flank of Israel. The risk of something very serious is on the table which could impact the entire global economy. For ordinary investors, when you look at earning forecasts for oil producers you will need to look at a wide range given the possible fluctuation in oil prices. In 70’s when oil price doubled, it did not result in a move into oil stocks as it killed the economy and hence the demand. But this time it could be different.
· One person asked a question and said he felt better about owning copper than gold. Don replied that copper prices are telling us that excess inventories have been worked off. Economic growth that has been in the industrial world is not such so as to drive its price up. Copper is better than other base metals but it is something you can put into the economically sensitive portion of your portfolio. Don gave the sense that he disagreed with the questionnaire about copper being better than gold.