After the early Aug drop, a large number of pundits declared with great certitude that the secular bear market had resumed. Comparisons with 2008 were everywhere. Since then, the market has had huge swings, but it's still above those Aug lows. So what's the hold up? Europe sinking, China slowing, Washington gridlock, boil and bubble, toil and trouble – why won't the markets crash? I can only come up with one explanation – the pundits are wrong, the bear market has not resumed.

I've tried to keep an open mind on this question, and one thing still bothers me – the MACD sell signal on the monthly chart. But the price action since Aug looks like a large basing formation – a bull market correction, in my view. A capitulation low occurred in early Oct, with a higher low late Nov – a classic bottoming formation. Overall, the bullish case appears stronger to me. The only thing that's missing is a higher high. If we get that, it would likely fix the monthly MACD and confirm the bull market is intact. Will that happen? – best guess is yes. Seasonality is positive, & Europe is once again on the back burner. Obviously, it will be choppy – lots of overhead resistance, but I think a new leg up has started.

What about the juniors? – they've been brutal this year. I think it's basically a reversion to the mean. Last year Venture was the best place to be – up about 60%. This year it's been the worst – down 32%. It's the nature of high beta – outperform when markets are up, underperform when markets are down. But what now? I expect another round of outperformance starting any day now. Tax loss selling should be winding down and bargain hunters (like me) will dominate the playing field. Also, Venture is on the cusp of a buy signal on the weekly MACD and close to breaking the long downtrend line. We will soon be off to the races, methinks.