Metals most at risk of supply disruption - BGS index

Britain's Geological Survey has produced a report analysing potential current global supply risk for 52 metals and elements. Interestingly the elements at most risk are not necessarily those that might immediately come to mind.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 14 Sep 2011

LONDON -

The UK's British Geological Survey (BGS) has produced a new supply risk index for chemical elements or element groups which are of economic value. The listing rates the risk to supply disruptions due to rarity and/or potential for political risk to availability for 52 key elements in 2011.

The BGS notes that the position of an element on this list is determined by a number of factors which might impact on supply. These include the abundance of the element in the Earth's crust, the location of current production and reserves, and risk arising from the political stability of those locations.

In its introduction to the publication of the listing on its website, the BGS says "The risk list highlights a group of elements where global production is concentrated in a few countries. The restricted supply base combined with the relatively low political stability ratings for some major producing countries significantly increase risk to supply. The list highlights economically important metals which are at risk of supply disruption including rare earths, platinum group metals, niobium and tungsten. The list also shows the current importance of China in production of many metals and minerals.

As demand for metals and minerals increases, driven by relentless growth in the emerging economies in Asia and South America, competition for resources is growing. Human factors such as geopolitics , resource nationalism, along with events such as strikes and accidents are the most likely to disrupt supply. Policy-makers, industry and consumers should be concerned about supply risk and the need to diversify supply from Earth resources, from recycling more and doing more with less, and also about the environmental implications of burgeoning consumption.

The list focuses on risks to supply and does not include any assessment of factors that influence demand, such as criticality of an element to a particular technology or how easy it is to substitute that element with another."

Interestingly, despite their name, and the huge dominance of global output from China, rare earths elements (REE) only come in at No.5 on the BGS listing, which is topped by antimony, platinum group metals, mercury and tungsten as all carrying risk factors of 8.5 out of 10. Of the most heavily traded metals, iron is at No.49 with a risk index of 3.5, copper comes in at No. 39 (risk index 4.5), aluminium at 51 (3.5), zinc at 42 (4.0), lead 35 (4.5), nickel 44 (4.0), uranium 43 (4.0). Diamonds only come in at No. 47 (4.0). Least at risk according to the BGS, and at the bottom of the list, is titanium (2.5).

Of the precious metals the platinum group as mentioned above are considered the most at risk at No. 2, silver is at 21 (6.0) and gold at 26 (5.5).

The BGS analysis, the listing itself and methodology in arriving at the risk index may be downloaded here - Risk list 2011.