RBC on SWY
posted on
Mar 01, 2011 02:04PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
PRICE TARGET REVISION | COMMENT FEBRUARY 28, 2011 Stornoway Diamonds Corp. (TSX: SWY) Share consolidation alters target Outperform Speculative Risk Price: 2.26 Shares O/S (MM): 88.8 Dividend: 0.00 Price Target: 3.65 0.90 Implied All-In Return: 62% Market Cap (MM): 201 Yield: 0.0% Owning all of Renard is positive Investment Opinion Target price change: Stornoway concluded a 1-for-4 share consolidation last
week. This and some minor changes to our model resulted in a new target price of C$3.65 but an unchanged Outperform recommendation. More shares to come: Shareholders voted strongly in favour of the deal where
Stornoway is buying the 50% of the Renard project it did not own from Diaquem, ultimately a subsidiary of SGF, the Quebec government's main industrial and financial holding company. On closing of this deal (April 1 is the target) SGF will be issued with shares equivalent to 25% of Stornoway's issued capital and non-voting convertible shares which would take its fully-converted interest to 37% of the outstanding equity. If this were effected today our target price would not alter materially. Owning all of Renard is positive: We believe that owning all of Renard is more
efficient in that investment/operating decisions can be taken faster. In addition, having SGF as a shareholder in the top company is a strong statement of support for Stornoway from the Quebec government. Effectively, non-SGF Stornoway shareholders now share in 63% of Renard instead of 50% previously, with the quid-pro-quo being the sale to SGF of 37% of the non-Renard properties. Next catalysts: The bankable feasibility study for the Renard project is due in Q3
this year. In the meantime we would expect share price catalysts to include further results from ongoing drilling on the project and other Stornoway properties. The bulk-sample testing at Renard 6/5 is hoped to provide a large diamond parcel to allow upgrading of resources from inferred to indicated, while the recently-announced micro-diamond results from Renard 1 is also positive. Investment conclusion By the end of 2011 Stornoway should be in a position to make a production decision at Renard. We expect a positive result with the combined open-pit/underground project delivering first diamonds in 2013, ramping up eventually to ~1.5m ct per year in 2016/2017. Given a dearth of developing diamond projects and a positive outlook for diamond prices we continue to rate Stornoway Outperform. Valuation Our $3.65 target price is based on a DCF (8%) model for Stornoway's 50% share Price Target Impediment Diamond prices and the timing of commencement of production are the main impediments to our Target Price. Company Description Stornoway is a Canadian-listed company which plans to develop a new diamond mine on the Renard kimberlites in northern Quebec. In addition Stornoway has a portfolio of prospective diamond ground in other parts of Canada.
in Renard, to which we have added a small amount for the exploration portfolio
and deducted central and exploration costs. In funding the mine we have assumed
a 65/35 equity:debt ratio. On April 1 this year Stornoway expects to close the deal
whereby it will own all of Renard in return for the issue to Diaquem of shares and
convertibles equivalent to 37% of SWY.