Moly - recommendation for TC (Thompson Creek)
posted on
Dec 09, 2010 08:40AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
I saw the following writeup on moly with a recommendation for TC. GMO is another moly play.
In the next year, demand for molybdenum will continue to grow, and it will come mainly from energy uses.
As I indicated a moment ago, nuclear reactors need moly, as do oil and gas pipelines. Deep-water wells also need it.
China’s growth will fuel a lot of this demand. The country already has a monopoly on rare-earth metal production (it controls 97% of the world’s supply), but it still depends on the rest of the world for a few key minerals and metals. Molybdenum is one metal the Chinese need to import, and its relative rarity makes it an easy “proxy play” for rare-earth metals.
Since the U.S. is the largest moly producer in the world, China will have no choice but to import it from us. That spells opportunity for investors in the U.S.-based companies that produce the stuff.
In fact, my Exit Alert Strategist subscribers have already banked 60% gains in just over three months in such a company. And there’s still an opportunity for you to profit as well…
There’s a great way to diversify into the energy metal: a company called Thompson Creek Metals (TC). They’re the leader in molybdenum production.
I recommended shares of this company to readers of Exit Alert Strategist when shares traded at $8.52 and China first announced cuts to rare-earth exports. Today they stand at over $13.66 – that’s a +60% return in just over three months!
Even at today’s prices, TC is still a great bargain. Here’s why:
Let’s start with the alluring balance sheet. Backing out all the debt, the company has $472 million in its coffers. That’s over 25% of the share price!
The company trades right now at book value, with a current P/E ratio of 9.6, and a forward of 7.5. Markets are currently trading at more than twice that price on average – even after Thompson Creek’s huge run-up!
Insiders started gradually buying shares when the stock was near its lows back in August. There’s nothing like having insiders buy – they know when a company is cheap! More importantly, they’re not selling. That indicates that the company insiders expect bigger gains.
No stranger to merger-and-acquisition activity, Thompson Creek has been buying up smaller companies, allowing them to build a small stake in Canada. The company is focusing almost exclusively with molybdenum, opting to sell other metals it finds to other companies with greater expertise. For example, Thompson Creek has a partnership to sell the gold it finds in one of its projects to Royal Gold.
I’m not here just to brag about how well shares have performed in the past few months. Despite the stock’s surge since August, it’s still a great company worth owning today.
I’d expect shares to continue rallying another 30-40% within the next year from current prices. TC offers one of the best pure-plays on a critical metal the world needs. The company has a great balance sheet and stellar earnings growth.
Most importantly, it’s a great “proxy play” on rare earths—only this time the United States, not China, has the upper hand."