UBS Says Ford (F) Could Post EPS of $4 by 2013, Suggests $38 Stock Price

tomorrow, Ford shares are up 1.6% to $16.77 today.

In it's note from this morning, UBS argued that EPS at Ford could nearly double to $4 over the next several years (by 2013). Analysts currently expect the automaker to report earnings of $2.05 per share for 2010. Ford posted EPS of 86c during 2009.

UBS's lofty earnings estimate uses several important assumptions:

• a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 16 million autos sold in the US; sales are estimated to be around 12 million this year
• US market share of 18.5% at Ford; the automaker currently boasts 16.5% market share
• a European sales recovery and continued growth in China and South America
• steadily improving earnings at Ford Credit
• reduced interest costs, and
• an investment-grade credit rating

Under a best-case scenario, UBS estimates EBITDA of $24 billion at Ford, implying a stock price around $38 per share at 6x.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $19 price target on shares of Ford.