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Message: Rare Element Resources: Potential Short Opportunity-a must read

http://seekingalpha.com/article/231266-rare-element-resources-potential-short-opportunity?source=dashboard_stocks-sectors

excerpt:

We expect the world to be awash in RE supply when/if Rare Element's Bear Lodge is producing in 2015 or 2016. Currently, the worldwide demand for RE outside of China is a meager 44,000 tons, and only 12,000 tons excluding Japan. While we view RE elements as a growth market, we believe RE recycling and RE alternatives could mute market growth. We reviewed plans for six pubic companies in the RE space, and combined, they plan over 82,000 tons of production of RE per year [Lynas (LYSCF.PK) (22k), Arafura (20k), MCP (20k), Avalon (AVARF.PK) (5k), Quest Rare (5k), Rare Element (10K)]. This represents almost two timesthe current demand outside of China and excludes massive private projects in India, Brazil, South Africa, Australia and the US. One estimate suggests that over a year ago there were 120 RE element mining projects globally at various stages (see here). And this was BEFORE the recent spike in prices. Given the massive expansion of worldwide RE mining, we expect the world to experience a glut of RE elements by the time Rare Element's mine is up and running. As a result, we believe it is a faulty assumption to extrapolate "bubble" pricing into future projections.

Red Flags at Bear Lodge

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