I agree with Walayat. This rally is more than a typical bear market rally. I was looking at some 3 year charts and virtually every major index has broken the downtrend line from the market top in 07. In fact, the patterns are very similar and look like a bump & run reversal bottom as termed by Thomas Bulkowski. According to the average gain for the pattern, most indexes have at least 15-25% to go before a major correction. Some will probably reach the 07 highs.

The gold stocks started the pattern before the rest of the market, and finished it in Dec. Now they are awaiting something new - probably consolidate for several more months (currently the bias is upward). PMs may reach the top of the trading range, but I don't expect a breakout for some time.